Forecast Calls for 100% Chance of Shady Bets
Last week, media outlets reported that French authorities are investigating unexplained temperature spikes at a Paris weather station following suspicious bets placed on the platform Polymarket.
Federally regulated prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi exploit loopholes in state and federal laws to bring casino-style gambling to anyone with a smartphone. Whereas traditional gambling in Arkansas and elsewhere operates under state oversight and state law, prediction market platforms claim protection under federal commodities laws.
The out-of-state companies running these platforms claim it’s not gambling. They just offer “financial products” that let people “invest” in the outcome of sports games or other real-world events — like tomorrow’s weather, foreign policy, and so on.
But calling it an “investment” does not change the reality. It’s wagering on uncertain outcomes in hopes of making money.
A viral security camera video clip making the rounds online claims to show a man using a hairdryer on a thermometer at a French weather station. The video says the man was trying to win a Polymarket bet about the weather in Paris.
Newsweek reports the thermometer spiked four degrees Celsius over the course of about 12 minutes before abruptly dropping again. The incident and the Polymarket wagers placed right before it happened were suspicious enough to prompt investigations.
All of this reminds us about the corrupting influence that gambling has.
Even if the viral video of the man with the hairdryer turned out to be fake, the fact that platforms like Kalshi let users gamble on the weather makes people suspicious when temperatures do something unexpected. Imagine what happens when we have problems from people betting on elections.
We need to close the loopholes and enact clear laws that prohibit prediction market wagering and any activity functioning like it.
Articles appearing on this website are written with the aid of Family Council’s researchers and writers.
